Floods, Wind, Rain
Radio Hams are naturally drawn into understanding the sun and it's effect on the earths weather system in the troposphere, which is the lower part of the atmosphere in which we live. In this area storms with wind, rain, lightning, tornadoes, hurricanes, floods are produced. In the UK we are now experiencing tornadoes on occasion but floods are happening quite often. More agitation in the troposphere produces more lightning, The suns cycle of activity has an effect on us which has been normally of little concern.
The sun has about an 11-year cycle of activity (22 years really, but the effect on us is, as an 11 year cycle).
When I wrote this article the sun was climbing up to the top of a cycle, that means it's getting active, more radiation reaches earth when it's more active. This in turn would mean that if it continued, summers would be hotter, eventually, (the exception proves the rule).
There were a few years (40) when the sun's activity cycle stopped at the bottom, when this happened, eventually, the planet in parts became cooler. In Britain the Thames in London would freeze over every year. It takes a few years for this to happen because the earth (planet) is like a giant storage radiator.
Now when this cycle happens normally, we don't really notice, but we are going to notice the weather much more than we ever thought, it will become at times a violent part of our lives.
More radiation on the surface means more evaporation from the oceans and lakes and land and vegetation. Due to polution, more of the radiation reaching the planet surface stays here, it gets trapped to a greater degree. In earthly matters the slogan " What goes up must come down" applies still, very much so.
So lots more water going up must come down, and it WILL".
Where will all this water go, well roughly the more moisture the air holds the easier it is for rain to occur, or precipitation as the weather man/woman says. This means that when air carrying moisture heading normally for northern Latitudes/ northern Britain comes across the British Isles and EU it will be able to shed it's load earlier because of it's increased load (higher dewpoint).
Britain is a maritime climate, this means its weather comes from the ocean, I regret this means for us, lots more coming down of what goes up, the oceans water in the form of rain.
The sun itself had been reducing its output due to its natural position in the solar cycle, we didn't feel the effect of an increase in global polution as much, because it was masked by the suns decrease, it was then followed by an increase in the suns output, which is increasing every year until 2002m approximatly.
In the year 2000 we will feel the effect even more, greater storms, greater rainfall, just more turbulence all over. In 2001 20002 2003 it will be even worse, unless the solar cycle takes a dip in activity, but this is not expected
In 2001 we are waiting for the 2nd ripple peak on the top of this cycle which is likely, so we are right in it as they say, up to our necks.
More people will be flooded out, injured by lightning, injured because of massive rainfall on mountains and following flash rivers and streams etc.
Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Wind generally will reach levels never before seen as a normal event. Britain of course would not get all this Phenomena, but, water it will get in plenty.
I have not seen any article published considering this matter in the way I have presented it here, which is why I produced it some years ago.
October 27th 2002 and the sun is hanging on near the top of its cycle. Look at the NASA graph at the bottom of this page, it suggests that we are in it up to our necks. Activity has been and is on the high side of possibilities, so I am suggesting that the autumn of 2002 in this hemisphere will be more turbulent, water laden, and the winter more snow
This of course is my carefully considered opinion, weather is complex of course, I don't suggest otherwise, but, you can get stuffed up your own proverbial rear, by allowing the basic fundamental of this assessment to escape due to complex thoughts or dreams of hope.
Some places may get dryer around the equator, there may be the ideal spot in this new order of events, but, extremes will be everywhere.
Adding to this appreciation in February 2003 it is now plain that the solar cycle is on course and falling downwards. Since 1960 approximately the suns output has been (on average) on the high side, remembering that the sun is the biggest player in the planet temperature control system, it is not unreasonable to find that parts of the planet are hotter than what WE think is normal. I say we because I mean the ordinary persons perception in the street, again remembering that our childhood years seem to influence us in regards of what we think is Normal, when it may well not be so. To consider what is normal you would need to be a scientist studying the subject or reading their findings in detail, and then consider that even they don't really know what is normal.
As this solar cycle continues its cycle of activity downwards, there is the possibility that as it reaches the bottom in about 2007, its next cycle (I'll call 11 years a cycle but its not) of activity will not reach such a high peak as previous ones from the 1960's period. I base this on looking at charts over some 200 years, and I have chosen my words carefully when I say Possibility.
What we do on the planet can amplify the suns effect, dirt and muck (in simple terms) pollution in the atmosphere can have a serious effect for sure, as also can natural events. I feel that everything we can do on the right side of the equation is sensible and constructive, any argument suggesting otherwise, can only come from the biased self interest of small minds, I always concede the exception proves the rule.
Also consider that there will be a time lag for effects as is the case for our seasons of the year, remember that after the sun has been closest to us in the northern hemisphere on about June the 21st it does not get colder the day after, in fact July and August are generally warmer, so it takes a few months to reverse which is quite logical.
This means the chances of 2003 being hot (in my humble opinion) are high, whilst 2004 should level off as a global or local measurement, if the cycle stays on course, then 2005-6-7-8 have the possibility to fall back a little or a lot.
I do think that there is a good possibility in the next 50 years, that the sun will have a lower peak activity on these cycles, this would mean "GENERALLY" for the Uk,, that summers would not be as hot, and the winters colder,, it would be accurate to say this is a reasonable possibility with a scientific basis. The start of this trend could be 2004 or even 2005, but I don't think it would as late as 2006.
Update in July 2006,,, It is worth mentioning at this junction that the English temperature record was broken in 1911,,, also that 1976 produced a scorched earth all over the UK with fields not green but brown,,, so we cannot jump to conclusions based on a odd variation, as variations are all part of the chaos weather system,,, its only chaos to humans because we are unable to appreciate its analogue constant variability, such a task is as yet technically impossible but getting better that poor,,,
BELOW IS AN AN EXTRACT FROM
& CREDITS TO THE OBSERVER NEWSPAPER BASED IN THE UK LONDON. Robin McKie, science editor
Sunday September 24, 2006
The Observer Newspaper {http://browse.guardian.co.uk/search?search=GLOBAL%20WARMING}
Cooling Sun brings relief to sweltering Earth
Help in battle against global warming as scientists claim that our nearest star is about to go into a period of reduced activity
The earth could be rescued from global warming by an unlikely saviour: not fewer cars, nor less pollution, nor even thousands of wind farms spread across Britain's hillsides - but, remarkably, by a cooler Sun. An international group of scientists believes a period of reduced solar activity could soon bring desperately needed cooling to our sweltering world.
The work is based on research of past periods of climatic change, including the Little Ice Age in the 1700s when Europe shivered, the Thames froze over, and harvests failed. At the same time, solar activity dropped and sunspots disappeared from the face of the Sun.
Now leading scientists are predicting that we may soon enter such a period again - although they stress such cooling would only bring temporary relief to our overheated world. In the end, the Earth will still be swamped by huge rises in global temperatures, triggered by human activities, that will affect the planet over the next few decades.
'If there was a period of low solar activity, it could give us a little more time to combat global warming and to introduce the curbs on the carbon emissions that we need to limit climate change,' said Professor Joanna Haigh, of Imperial College, London.
The revelation comes in the wake of Nasa's successful launch on Friday of the Solar-B mission, which will study the Sun's corona. Space scientists are finalising preparations for two other probes to study the star that dominates the world: Stereo, in which one spaceship will fly ahead of, and another behind, the Earth as it orbits the Sun; and Solar Orbiter, which will swoop close to the Sun's surface to gain a detailed view of its surface.
Scientists have known for decades that the Sun's output varies over an 11-year cycle. More recently, they have found what appear to be other, longer cycles affecting its output. These occasionally cause perceptible drops in solar radiation. For example, during the Little Ice Age, which affected Europe from 1650 to the end of the 18th century, astronomers noted that sunspots disappeared completely from the face of the Sun.
'High numbers of sunspots are associated with increased solar output,' said Professor Sami Solanki, of the Max Planck Institute for Solar Research, in Katlenberg-Lindau, Germany. 'Sunspots occur when magnetic fields rip through the Sun's surface and show that vast amounts of energy are being released deep within its heart. The impact on the Earth can be considerable.'
Studies have shown that when solar output is high, the climate tends to be hot. For example, over the past 30 to 40 years scientists believe the Sun has been particularly active, adding to Earth's already considerable heating problems. However, things may change in the near future.
One study, by a group led by solar expert Leif Svalgaard of ETK - a consulting firm based in Houston, Texas - has predicted that in the next few years solar activity is set to drop to its weakest level in over a century, with sunspot numbers declining by about 40 per cent over the next decade. 'Sunspot numbers will be extremely small,' he said.
This point was backed by Cambridge solar physicist Nigel Weiss. 'Periods of high solar activity do not last long, perhaps 50 to 100 years, then you get a crash,' he told New Scientist. 'It is a boom-bust system and I would expect a crash soon.'
The net result of this sunspot decrease could be to lead to an increase in cloud formation and also to a reduction in ultra-violet radiation reaching the atmosphere. Overall, it would bring about a 0.2C decline in global temperatures, according to Solanki and his colleagues.
That is only a tenth of the rise now predicted to grip the world over the next few decades, however. Not enough to save the Earth from a sweltering, overheated fate but possibly enough to provide a little breathing space in which humanity could take remedial action.
'Just who might benefit most from any reduction in solar energy is hard to say at present,' added Professor Haigh. 'The Little Ice Age was mainly felt in western Europe and the rest of the world was relatively unaffected - possibly because meteorological effects cause solar radiation reductions to have localised impacts. That could happen again, though it is difficult to predict where.'
However, not every expert on solar radiation agrees with the idea that sunspot numbers are set to decline. Other scientists - using the same data - have come to a different conclusion. They predict that numbers will increase over the next decade.
'We predict a 30 to 50 per cent increase,' said Mausumi Dikpati, of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research's High Altitude Observatory in Boulder, Colorado. If such an increase occurs, there could then be a strengthening of global temperature rises.
It is an interesting issue, admits Svalgaard, one of the main backers of the low-sunspot school. 'If all models predict the same thing, we don't get wiser.' As to finding out who is right, that would take a couple of years, he added. 'We're all waiting.'
Great ball of fire
The Sun is a sphere of super-hot gas, 870,000 miles in diameter. Its volume is great enough to hold more than one million Earths.
The surface temperature is 5,500 degrees Centigrade: it is 15 million degrees C at its core.
The average distance from Earth to Sun is 93 million miles. At a steady 70mph, it would take 152 years to drive there.
Even with a speed of 186,000 miles per second, it takes light eight-and-a-half minutes to travel from the Sun's surface to the Earth.
At 4.5 billion years old, the Sun is halfway through its lifespan.
George Harrison's Here Comes the Sun was written in Eric Clapton's garden in 1969. Members of the georgeharrison.com forum voted it their favourite track.
Extract by and from
Robin McKie, science editor
The Observer Newspaper
{http://browse.guardian.co.uk/search?search=GLOBAL%20WARMING}
2008 UPDATE
If the solar cycle does drop to lower peaks in the next 20 years plus plus,,as its quite possible to do,,,, and the temperature on the planet as a whole does still rise,,,, then we can be in deep trouble unless you have a very large and powerful vacuum cleaner or global air filter! The hope is that one will counter the other for some tens of years, but the period cannot be depended upon so we must act now or have a giant multi national pragmatic plan,,,, some hope of that? Well surprise surprise,,,, The Solar Magazine named,, "Solar Today" may/june 2008 has an article page 24 called,, "Scrubbing Carbon from the Breeze",, by Rona Fried Ph.D.
Topic is by Solar Today magazine. "Scrubbing Carbon from the Breeze" was written by Rona Fried, Ph.D., president of Sustainable Business.com in the May/June 2008 issue. Unfortunately this particular article is not available online as I write dated August 2008. .
As climate change become a more central issue for people and governments around the globe, a lot of people are looking for solutions - fast solutions. If there were a quick and inexpensive way to dramatically reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, we should go for it right? Well a number of "quick fix" solutions, which have centred around hacking the environment to fight climate change, have been floating around for years. One strategy is to capture the CO2 with plankton and bury it in the ocean (which is much easier and cheaper than pumping it into the ground). Another is to change the composition of our atmosphere to reflect sunlight. Others tend to be more sci-fi and outlandish - but all of them might just turn out to be disastrous. .
Even with more realistic alternatives, like carbon capture and sequestration from coal plants, have drawn criticism. But that hasn't stopped some of the world's wealthiest and most outspoken environmentalists from offering millions of dollars for a feasible and fast solution that captures CO2 out of the air after it's released. .
No wonder some are trying to use technology to solve our CO2 problem. While renewable energy and energy efficiency help prevent more CO2 pollution, several companies are looking to make money off off the inert gas. Not to be confused with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), these focus on the technology and economics of only capturing CO2. What we do with the carbon next is an open question. Fortunately "CO2 is the 19th largest commodity chemical in the United States", according to the DOE, with numerous industrial, agricultural, and everyday uses - you can even make fuel out of it. So whoever first manages to harvest it cheaply could make a lot of money, even without millions in prize money. .
Universities and academic collaborations compete with scientists and businesses to reach this goal. The Green Options network has featured promising technologies from Sandia National Labs before. While many are still in design or prototype stages, others are already being commercially demonstrated. Dr. Rona Fried points out in her Solar Today article that the technology is not new. Submarines and spacecraft use scrubbers and filters to protect their crews from their own exhalations. There's even a famous scene in the movie Apollo 13 about repairing one such device in 1970. .
A better way to absorb CO2 on a larger scale is to use chemicals called sorbents. They soak up carbon dioxide on contact like a plant or sponge; then the CO2 can be separated from the sorbent and used. The trick is to build a machine that can do both without requiring excessive operation costs. If it needs too much energy, maintenance, etc., it simply won't be profitable. .
A company called Global Research Technologies (GRT) believes they have designed a viable system in that works at ambient temperatures (no cooling required) and uses about the same amount of energy as a power-plant flue scrubber - the type already available to clean power plant emissions. They call it the ACCESS (Atmospheric Carbon CapturE SystemS) device, which has already been demonstrated, and it's exciting because it could be located almost anywhere. They could line our highways, form rows like wind farms, or be installed near industrial facilities that use or produce CO2. Better yet, the technology is scalable, so the larger you build them the more CO2 they collect. One such ACCESS device the size of a tree could capture 1,000 times more CO2 than a tree. Global Research Technologies even claims that 250,000 such models, each about the side of a wind turbine, would neutralize the CO2 we're currently emitting. GRT hopes to produce 100 of these devices within 5 years. Unfortunately they'll be expensive, about $250/ metric ton of CO2 captured, but like any industry, economies of scale could dramatically reduce that cost to $30-$50 per ton. GRT hopes their technology will be competitive on the carbon offsets market. .
Klaus Lackner, a professor of geophysics at Columbia University, helped found GRT and design the ACCESS device. From the article: "Lackner outlined the potential of carbon capture as one piece of the portfolio of carbon reduction strategy", which means of course that this is not THE ANSWER to climate change. We cannot and should not rely on this or any one solution to "solve " our CO2 problem. We still need to increase our energy efficiency, invest in renewable technologies, and work towards more sustainable lifestyles. But with all the depressing facts, figures and discussions surrounding our rising CO2 emissions and climate change, this is one technology among many that provide a ray of hope. Maybe, just maybe, with the plethora of resources at our disposal, we can begin to build a technological infrastructure that will not come back to haunt us with half-acknowledged or poorly understood consequences of unbridled development. .
Credits for this article go to Solar Today,, why not subscribe to this magazine for an excellent read.
2009 December update
The solar cycle of activity has indeed reduced. In about 2000/2001 it was at its last peak. This means in roughly 11 years later it should be at the next peak but this is not the case. December 2009 has seen no suggestion of it rising to that peak, prediction would be near impossible. At this stage we are running along the bottom seeing essentially zero sunspot activity, if there is a grand designer he could not have done better for our planet at this critical time but it sure as heck wont be enough.
My opinion of human beings is that we are collectively simple and stupid beings. We are incapable of thinking about our future on this gifted planet, we take it for granted,,, but from where I see it we are destined to perish and perhaps even a few hundred will not be able to survive (self sustain)on the moon before anarchy prevails on our planet, due to a breakdown of systems that sustain us.
Greed and idiotic thinking, materialism, Chelsea Tractors (that means 4 wheel drive vehicles) meet and take children to school. Company executives and the hierarchy they sit on the top of,, want more and more,, but more of what?
We need to build carbon scrubbers globally to put us in a position to control some of the pollution levels, at the same time stop polluting our atmosphere. This means controlling populations of living things including us! We need to interject and treat our planet as a space ship which needs complete control systems. Unless we take that attitude one day we will simply cease to exist after a lot of pain. !
Political parties are frightened to act, countries wont get together, so,,,, that's it folks. We are all snowflakes that together can make an avalanche,,,, but,,, we cant see it because we are blind in the brain, stupid, no leader dare stand up and even try and take us the right way because of the greed of those in the society they represent,, but just one, ought to TRY! All this is of course is one opinion! Does it make sense to you!
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