The sun has about an 11-year cycle of activity (22 years really, but the effect on us is, as an 11 year cycle).
When I wrote this article the sun was climbing up to the top of a cycle, that means it's getting active, more radiation reaches earth when it's more active. This in turn would mean that if it continued, summers would be hotter, eventually, (the exception proves the rule).
There were a few years (40) when the sun's activity cycle stopped at the bottom, when this happened, eventually, the planet in parts became cooler. In Britain the Thames in London would freeze over every year. It takes a few years for this to happen because the earth (planet) is like a giant storage radiator.
Now when this cycle happens normally, we don't really notice, but we are going to notice the weather much more than we ever thought, it will become at times a violent part of our lives.
More radiation on the surface means more evaporation from the oceans and lakes and land and vegetation. Due to polution, more of the radiation reaching the planet surface stays here, it gets trapped to a greater degree. In earthly matters the slogan " What goes up must come down" applies still, very much so.
So lots more water going up must come down, and it WILL".
Where will all this water go, well roughly the more moisture the air holds the easier it is for rain to occur, or precipitation as the weather man/woman says. This means that when air carrying moisture heading normally for northern Latitudes/ northern Britain comes across the British Isles and EU it will be able to shed it's load earlier because of it's increased load (higher dewpoint).
Britain is a maritime climate, this means its weather comes from the ocean, I regret this means for us, lots more coming down of what goes up, the oceans water in the form of rain.
In the year 2000 we will feel the effect even more, greater storms, greater rainfall, just more turbulence all over. In 2001 20002 2003 it will be even worse, unless the solar cycle takes a dip in activity, but this is not expected
In"2001 we are waiting for the 2nd ripple peak on the top of this cycle which is likely, so we are right in it as they say, up to our necks.
More people will be flooded out, injured by lightning, injured because of massive rainfall on mountains and following flash rivers and streams etc.
Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Wind generally will reach levels never before seen as a normal event. Britain of course would not get all this Phenomena, but, water it will get in plenty.
I have not seen any article published considering this matter in the way I have presented it here, which is why I produced it some years ago.
October 27th 2002 and the sun is hanging on near the top of its cycle. Look at the NASA graph at the bottom of this page, it suggests that we are in it up to our necks. Activity has been and is on the high side of possibilities, so I am suggesting that the autumn of 2002 in this hemisphere will be more turbulent, water laden, and the winter more snow
This of course is my carefully considered opinion, weather is complex of course, I don't suggest otherwise, but, you can get stuffed up your own proverbial rear, by allowing the basic fundamental of this assessment to escape due to complex thoughts or dreams of hope.
Some places may get dryer around the equator, there may be the ideal spot in this new order of events, but, extremes will be everywhere.
Adding to this appreciation in February 2003 it is now plain that the solar cycle is on course and falling downwards. Since 1960 approximately the suns output has been (on average) on the high side, remembering that the sun is the biggest player in the planet temperature control system, it is not unreasonable to find that parts of the planet are hotter than what “We” think is normal. I say “We” because I mean the ordinary persons perception in the street, again remembering that our childhood years seem to influence us in regards of what we think is “Normal”, when it may well not be so. To consider what is normal you would need to be a scientist studying the subject or reading their findings in detail, and then consider that even they don’t really know what is normal.
As this solar cycle continues its cycle of activity downwards, there is the possibility that as it reaches the bottom in about 2007, its next cycle (I’ll call 11 years a cycle but its not) of activity will not reach such a high peak as previous ones from the 1960’s period. I base this on looking at charts over some 200 years, and I have chosen my words carefully when I say “Possibility”.
What we do on the planet can amplify the suns effect, dirt and muck (in simple terms) pollution in the atmosphere can have a serious effect for sure, as also can natural events. I feel that everything we can do on the right side of the equation is sensible and constructive, any argument suggesting otherwise, can only come from the biased self interest of small minds, I always concede the exception proves the rule.
Also consider that there will be a time lag for effects as is the case for our seasons of the year, remember that after the sun has been closest to us in the northern hemisphere on about June the 21st it does not get colder the day after, in fact July and August are generally warmer, so it takes a few months to reverse which is quite logical.
This means the chances of 2003 being hot (in my humble opinion) are high, whilst 2004 should level off as a global or local measurement, if the cycle stays on course, then 2005-6-7-8 have the possibility to fall back a little or a lot.
I do think that there is a good possibility in the next 50 years, that the sun will have a lower peak activity on these cycles, this would mean "GENERALLY" for the Uk,, that summers would not be as hot, and the winters colder,, it would be accurate to say this is a reasonable possibility with a scientific basis. The start of this trend could be 2004 or even 2005, but I don’t think it would as late as 2006.
Update in July 2006,,, It is worth mentioning at this junction that the English temperature record was broken in 1911,,, also that 1976 produced a scorched earth all over the UK with fields not green but brown,,, so we cannot jump to conclusions based on a odd variation, as variations are all part of the chaos weather system,,, its only chaos to humans because we are unable to appreciate its analogue constant variability, such a task is as yet technically impossible but getting better that poor,,,
John (GM0EXN)
BELOW IS AN AN EXTRACT FROM
& CREDITS TO THE OBSERVER NEWSPAPER BASED IN THE UK LONDON. Robin McKie, science editor Sunday September 24, 2006
The Observer Newspaper {http://browse.guardian.co.uk/search?search=GLOBAL%20WARMING}
Cooling Sun brings relief to sweltering Earth
Help in battle against global warming as scientists claim that our nearest star is about to go into a period of reduced activity The earth could be rescued from global warming by an unlikely saviour: not fewer cars, nor less pollution, nor even thousands of wind farms spread across Britain's hillsides - but, remarkably, by a cooler Sun. An international group of scientists believes a period of reduced solar activity could soon bring desperately needed cooling to our sweltering world. The work is based on research of past periods of climatic change, including the Little Ice Age in the 1700s when Europe shivered, the Thames froze over, and harvests failed. At the same time, solar activity dropped and sunspots disappeared from the face of the Sun.
Now leading scientists are predicting that we may soon enter such a period again - although they stress such cooling would only bring temporary relief to our overheated world. In the end, the Earth will still be swamped by huge rises in global temperatures, triggered by human activities, that will affect the planet over the next few decades.
'If there was a period of low solar activity, it could give us a little more time to combat global warming and to introduce the curbs on the carbon emissions that we need to limit climate change,' said Professor Joanna Haigh, of Imperial College, London.
The revelation comes in the wake of Nasa's successful launch on Friday of the Solar-B mission, which will study the Sun's corona. Space scientists are finalising preparations for two other probes to study the star that dominates the world: Stereo, in which one spaceship will fly ahead of, and another behind, the Earth as it orbits the Sun; and Solar Orbiter, which will swoop close to the Sun's surface to gain a detailed view of its surface.
Scientists have known for decades that the Sun's output varies over an 11-year cycle. More recently, they have found what appear to be other, longer cycles affecting its output. These occasionally cause perceptible drops in solar radiation. For example, during the Little Ice Age, which affected Europe from 1650 to the end of the 18th century, astronomers noted that sunspots disappeared completely from the face of the Sun. 'High numbers of sunspots are associated with increased solar output,' said Professor Sami Solanki, of the Max Planck Institute for Solar Research, in Katlenberg-Lindau, Germany. 'Sunspots occur when magnetic fields rip through the Sun's surface and show that vast amounts of energy are being released deep within its heart. The impact on the Earth can be considerable.' Studies have shown that when solar output is high, the climate tends to be hot. For example, over the past 30 to 40 years scientists believe the Sun has been particularly active, adding to Earth's already considerable heating problems. However, things may change in the near future.
One study, by a group led by solar expert Leif Svalgaard of ETK - a consulting firm based in Houston, Texas - has predicted that in the next few years solar activity is set to drop to its weakest level in over a century, with sunspot numbers declining by about 40 per cent over the next decade. 'Sunspot numbers will be extremely small,' he said.
This point was backed by Cambridge solar physicist Nigel Weiss. 'Periods of high solar activity do not last long, perhaps 50 to 100 years, then you get a crash,' he told New Scientist. 'It is a boom-bust system and I would expect a crash soon.'
The net result of this sunspot decrease could be to lead to an increase in cloud formation and also to a reduction in ultra-violet radiation reaching the atmosphere. Overall, it would bring about a 0.2C decline in global temperatures, according to Solanki and his colleagues.
That is only a tenth of the rise now predicted to grip the world over the next few decades, however. Not enough to save the Earth from a sweltering, overheated fate but possibly enough to provide a little breathing space in which humanity could take remedial action.
'Just who might benefit most from any reduction in solar energy is hard to say at present,' added Professor Haigh. 'The Little Ice Age was mainly felt in western Europe and the rest of the world was relatively unaffected - possibly because meteorological effects cause solar radiation reductions to have localised impacts. That could happen again, though it is difficult to predict where.'
However, not every expert on solar radiation agrees with the idea that sunspot numbers are set to decline. Other scientists - using the same data - have come to a different conclusion. They predict that numbers will increase over the next decade.
'We predict a 30 to 50 per cent increase,' said Mausumi Dikpati, of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research's High Altitude Observatory in Boulder, Colorado. If such an increase occurs, there could then be a strengthening of global temperature rises.
It is an interesting issue, admits Svalgaard, one of the main backers of the low-sunspot school. 'If all models predict the same thing, we don't get wiser.' As to finding out who is right, that would take a couple of years, he added. 'We're all waiting.'
Great ball of fire
The Sun is a sphere of super-hot gas, 870,000 miles in diameter. Its volume is great enough to hold more than one million Earths.
The surface temperature is 5,500 degrees Centigrade: it is 15 million degrees C at its core.
The average distance from Earth to Sun is 93 million miles. At a steady 70mph, it would take 152 years to drive there.
Even with a speed of 186,000 miles per second, it takes light eight-and-a-half minutes to travel from the Sun's surface to the Earth.
At 4.5 billion years old, the Sun is halfway through its lifespan.
George Harrison's Here Comes the Sun was written in Eric Clapton's garden in 1969. Members of the georgeharrison.com forum voted it their favourite track.
Extract by and from
Robin McKie, science editor
The Observer Newspaper
{http://browse.guardian.co.uk/search?search=GLOBAL%20WARMING}
